The next United States presidential election is still more than three years away, but given the current occupant of the White House can’t seem to get himself disentangled from scandal for longer than it takes for a hummingbird to flap its wings, speculation has been rampant over who might be president when the vote finally, mercifully rolls around.
Speculation is one thing, but what if we could start putting some numbers to possible presidential outcomes? Given it’s far too early for polling, what I’ve done instead is aggregated information from betting markets and converted it into implied probabilities to produce what I’m calling our first 2020 Presidential Power Ranking. These will be updated as odds change (anyone else checking out the James Comey testimony today?).
Before you check out the ranking: ElectionFutures.com does not charge for subscriptions, but in lieu of that, I’d love it if you’d give the site a follow either on Twitter (by clicking here), on Facebook (by clicking here).
2020 PRESIDENTIAL POWER RANKING
1. DONALD TRUMP. Business mogul and 45th president of the United States. Best known prior to his entry into politics as a reality TV host. 2020 election probability: 20.68 per cent.
2. MIKE PENCE. Current vice president of the United States. Would become president in even of Trump resignation or impeachment. 2020 election probability: 7.75 per cent.
3. ELIZABETH WARREN. Former academic, current U.S. senator for the state of Massachusetts. Current favourite to win the Democratic nomination for president. 2020 election probability: 6.20 per cent.
T-4. MICHELLE OBAMA. Former college executive and ex-first lady of the United States. Generated plenty of presidential buzz following speech at Democratic National Convention last summer. 2020 election probability: 3.65 per cent.
T-5. JOE BIDEN. Former vice president of the United States under Barack Obama. 2020 election probability: 3.65 per cent.
6. CORY BOOKER. Former mayor of Newark and current junior senator from the state of New Jersey. Democrat. 2020 election probability: 2.95 per cent.
7. HILLARY CLINTON. Former first lady, U.S. Senator for the state of New York and secretary of state. Lost 2016 election to Donald Trump. 2020 election probability: 2.70 per cent.
8. MARK ZUCKERBERG. Founder, chairman and CEO of Facebook. Despite denials of his interest in the job, speculation persists that he might mount a nomination bid. 2020 election probability: 2.39
T-9. PAUL RYAN. Republican house majority leader. Lost to Barack Obama as a vice presidential candidate in the 2012 presidential election. 2020 election probability: 2.14 per cent.
T-9. BERNIE SANDERS. United States senator for the state of Vermont. Ran for and lost the Democratic nomination for 2016 to Hillary Clinton. 2020 election probability: 2.14 per cent.
(File photo of candidate Donald Trump campaigning for president. Credit: Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia Commons)